Arsenal backed for Premier League title by Opta supercomputer – but what do the numbers say with Manchester City and Aston Villa in pursuit?

Chasing down a league title that has eluded them since 2004, Mikel Arteta’s side are currently on track to end that drought this season.

Opta’s supercomputer gives them a whooping 85.4% chance of ending the season at the summit.

Having previously pipped Arsenal to the title in 2022/23 and 2023/24, Pep Guardiola’s side, who sit in second place currently, have a nearly 10% chance of clawing back the current deficit and making it another season of disappointment for the north Londoners.

Surprise package Villa in third have approximately a 5% likelihood of upsetting the odds, with defending champions Liverpool given a fractional chance of retaining their crown.

Opta Premier League supercomputer prediction, January 14 2026

Image credit: Getty Images

Arsenal established their lead following a strong showing over the Christmas period, winning four of their five fixtures between December 20 and January 8, only drawing with champions Liverpool in their last outing.

Particularly notable during Arsenal’s run was the fact that they were able to pick up wins away at Everton and Bournemouth, as well as beating Brighton & Hove Albion and Villa at home – all games in which they dropped points last season.

In fact, of their 21 matches played to date, Arteta’s side are a hefty 17 points better off from the corresponding fixtures last term, which is the biggest margin of any team in the division.

They will be hoping to continue that trend against Forest – where they drew last season – who find themselves a huge 11 points worse off.

Ominously for The Gunners, however, Manchester City are currently 13 points better off from the same matches last time out, as they look to secure themselves a fifth Premier League crown in six seasons.

Villa are currently five points up from the same games last term as they look to at least nail down the UEFA Champions League place they missed out on in 2024/25… if they don’t land the big one!

Among those also hunting a top-four spot, Liverpool’s disappointing title defence sees them 15 points worse off than last season, the biggest drop of any team in the league, including rock-bottom Wolverhampton Wanderers, who are 12 points down.

Points won this season to date versus points won in same fixtures last season:

Of course, no two seasons are the same, with results varying wildly – and the absence of results against the promoted/relegated sides must be noted. But it is still worth a look at what remaining fixtures might tell us about the coming months in the division.

Looking ahead, and purely hypothetically, if teams were to somehow match what they did last year in their remaining games – minus those against Burnley, Leeds United and Sunderland – the possible final table makes for interesting reading.

Premier League final table based on points won last season in remaining fixtures this season

*Promoted clubs not included

Manchester City picked up four more points than Arsenal from each sides’ remaining fixtures last season, which, if that occurs again, will make for a tight and thrilling title race ultimately settled in favour of The Gunners by just two points.

Villa would be some way back and Unai Emery will hope last season’s worrying points equivalent of just 21 won’t lead to a major drop off this time around.

With 31 points picked up last term, Arne Slot’s Liverpool will hope to rediscover that kind of form to propel themselves up the table and finish comfortably in the top four.

Further down the table, a massive improvement is needed at Tottenham Hotspur or there could be very worrying times ahead, while United will also aim to defy last year’s results in order to avoid a second successive bottom-half finish.

But there could be some good news for seemingly Championship-bound Wolves, with the smallest of consolation prizes from their season.

If they were to match their eight points accrued from the same fixtures last season, they will at least go down having avoided the unwanted record of Derby County’s all-time low of 11.

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